Hsiao to Be Announced Running Mate：Challenges Facing Lai's National Security Team
By Kuo Chung-lun
United Daily News, November 11, 2023
It is widely reported in Taipei’s political circles that Ambassador Bi-khim Hsiao, representative to the United States, made a secret trip to Taiwan at the end of October. Hsiao met only with President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President William Lai, then quickly returned to the United States. She had normal schedules and meetings in the United States, and observers were unaware of her quick home visit.
Hsiao as Running Mate Good Move to Win U.S. Support
Hsiao’s recent trip to Taiwan was to confirm her as Lai’s running mate. Hsiao is supposed to be the trump card of the Lai camp’s response to the alliance between Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Lai originally planned to play this card after the alliance between KMT and TPP was formed, but Lai’s support rate has been slipping in recent months while the alliance was yet to be finalized. In paying greater attention to the adversary, the Lai campaign had to confirm Hsiao’s role sooner than later.
Frankly speaking, picking Hsiao as Vice President William Lai’s running mate is not only a good card to boost domestic support, but also a good move to win support from the United States. While President Tsai displayed prudence and non-provocation in her actions, the United States has never eliminated its doubts about Lai’s position. The United States can communicate best with Hsiao; by choosing her, the United States has nothing else to say but affirm the choice. This is the factor that propelled Lai to make the final decision.
But the choosing of Hsiao covers up the problems of Lai’s national security team as well as the most disturbing factor of this election, that is, whether the Lai camp has sufficient talents for issues concerning Taiwan’s national security and if they have a full grasp of Taiwan’s national security issues.
How Many DPP National Security Talents Can Lai Retain?
Currently, almost all the first-rate talents inside the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been recruited by President Tsai. Only a few inexperienced or less popular people are on the fringe of the establishment. After eight years of hard work, President Tsai’s national security people are exhausted, most of them have exerted themselves to the utmost. For example, Mr. Chen Chung-lin and Mr. Chen Wen-cheng in the National Security Council (NSC) are unable to continue their service; other heads like Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu, Secretary-General Wellington Koo of the NSC, or even Hsiao have sworn their loyalty to President Tsai. Some of them have said that they will leave office with President Tsai.
Lai’s Inner National Security Circle: Vincent Chao and Lai I-chung
Many talented people like Chiu I-jen, former NSC secretary-general under President Chen Shui-bian, or members of national policy advisory groups, like Academia Sinica member Chu Ching-I, are around Lai, but they are not his confidants. Only two people can be called Lai’s confidants in national security matters; namely, Taipei City Councilor Vincent Chao and President Lai I-chung of the Prospect Foundation.
In power politics, those who have direct access to the boss do not want to share it with more people. This case also applies to KMT. Mr. Hou Yu-ih is surrounded by a small number of former high-level New Taipei City government officials, and national security advisers of KMT’s Central Committee do not have direct access to Mr. Hou’s campaign office. Likewise, as Chao and Lai have won the trust of Lai, other national security staff cannot gain access.
National Security Staff Concerned About Chao Taking Helm of Foreign Affairs
Vincent Chao is the gatekeeper of Lai’s foreign affairs matters. He deals with foreign representatives and foreign reporters in Taiwan, but there are complaints inside DPP. Lai recently published a signed article in the Wall Street Journal about the “four pillars” of his policy, and it is known that this article was the work of Chao. But senior officials of DPP did not review the article in advance, and they felt awkward when asked. Later on, mistakes were found in the article, but no one came out to share the blame with Chao.
When Lai receives foreign guests, it is Chao who writes the talking points, but NSC staff said that the talking points were useless and needed to be revised multiple times. So NSC staff are worried that if Chao becomes their superior, how can they revise the talking points? Who dares to revise the talking points?
Lai I-chung is the “political commissar” in William Lai’s national security team. He is in charge of ideology and is a hardliner both in words and in deeds. Lai I-chung is tough not only towards China but also towards the United States.
Although Tough, Lai I-chung Seems Ignorant of China and U.S.
In a recent article, Lai I-chung severely criticized some American scholars who had written or spoken before the meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco. Lai wrote that even though one cannot prove that the intensity of the appearances of articles is the result of prior collaboration, the narratives seem to be similar in that they ask the United States to reassure China to avoid war and to prevent U.S.-China relations from spiraling out of control.
Lai particularly mentioned Ms. Oriana Skylar Mastro, who has a military background, suggested that the United States should offer strategic reassurances to China, such as the signing of a fourth U.S.-China communiqué and put “no independence” and “no use of force” in the text. Lai wrote that Ms. Mastro’s suggestions disparage Taiwan’s democracy, not demanding China pay attention to the wishes of Taiwanese people, but letting Taiwan develop like Hong Kong.
The international reality is different from subjective expectations. The United States wants to build guardrails against mainland China, but at the same time hopes that Taiwan can lend a hand by engaging in cross-strait dialogues to avoid misunderstandings. But if Lai’s staff member is so tough on “resisting China to protect Taiwan” by forcing Beijing to face squarely Taiwan’s popular aspiration for democracy, then there is neither intention nor method for the relaxation of cross-strait tensions. This is both ignorant of China and the United States.
How Will Lai Define Hsiao’s Role in National Security Issues?
Hsiao had served as DPP’s representative in the United States and is a predecessor of Lai I-chung. Vincent Chao was the political division director of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) in the United States under Hsiao. So Hsiao is familiar with both of them. But they do not share the same views. Hsiao’s ideology is closer to that of President Tsai. If Hsiao became the number two person, her power and duties would be defined by the president. If the president can use Hsiao’s talents, she could be the chief coordinator of national security policy, but if she was not given the duties or just serves as a sign for campaigning, then she would hold the office without making any contributions like most of the number two persons.
Recently, I met a high-level national security official at a foreign country’s national day reception. I reminded him that if they do not join Lai’s camp, there will be national security problems in the future. He gave me a wry smile and said this is a political question, and as professional staff, it is not appropriate for them to do so. It seems that Hsiao alone has to jump into the political whirlpool.
(The author is deputy editor-in-chief of the United Daily News.)